Nigeria produced 554.4 million barrels of crude oil and condensate in 2025, according to new figures released by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC).
The regulator’s report, titled “Crude Oil and Condensate Production 2025,” shows that average daily crude oil and condensate output rose by 5% to 1.63 million barrels per day (mb/d), up from 1.55 mb/d in 2024.
Despite the stronger daily average, total annual output dipped by 2%, down from 566.8 million barrels recorded in 2024.
The NUPRC data points to improved operating conditions in 2025, helped by the reopening of previously shut-in wells and a relatively calmer Niger Delta environment. These gains helped cushion disruptions linked to routine maintenance shutdowns and incidents such as the Escravos–Lagos Pipeline explosion, which temporarily affected flows from key assets.
Monthly averages and oil price context
On a year-on-year basis, 2025 production averaged 46.2 million barrels per month, slightly below the 47.2 million barrels per month average in 2024. The report also tracked Brent crude pricing trends over the year, noting prices opened at $79/b, averaged $71/b, and closed at $63/b.
For crude oil alone (excluding condensate), Nigeria averaged 1.42 mb/d in 2025. This level represents roughly 95% of Nigeria’s 1.5 mb/d OPEC quota, marking an improvement from 2024, when output patterns were more uneven amid oil theft and sabotage pressures.
In December 2025, crude and condensate output stood at 1.54 mb/d, lower than the estimated 1.66 mb/d recorded in December 2024. Even so, the higher full-year daily average suggests that the mid-year improvements in stability and output were sustained for much of the year.
2025 monthly production breakdown (mb/d)
Crude oil condensate:
January 1.73, February 1.73, March 1.69, April 1.68, May 1.65, June 1.69, July 1.71, August 1.63, September 1.58, October 1.59, November 1.59, December 1.54.
Crude oil only:
January 1.53, February 1.46, March 1.40, April 1.48, May 1.45, June 1.50, July 1.50, August 1.43, September 1.38, October 1.42, November 1.43, December 1.42.
The report notes that 2025 started strongly, holding 1.73 mb/d in January and February, stayed relatively firm through mid-year with July at 1.71 mb/d, then eased gradually toward year-end.
Outlook: stability remains the key variable
The NUPRC data suggests Nigeria’s improved security posture,supported by government efforts such as Operation Delta Safe—helped limit illegal bunkering and supported better throughput. However, the report also points to ongoing constraints, including ageing infrastructure and delayed investments.
Industry analysts cited in the piece say output could push toward 1.7 mb/d in 2026 if current stability holds and there are no major disruptions from security setbacks, geopolitical shocks, or weaker oil prices.
